The most important meteor shower in 1999 is probably the Leonids', since a meteor storm is expected to occur this year !! The meteor storm is a great meteor shower, that produces thousands of meteors which can be seen by naked eyes. The parent comet for the Leonids' is Tempel-Tuttle, which had reached the perihelion on 28 February 1998. There is a chance of a Leonid Meteor Storm in 1999. It is expected that the peak will occur on November 18, at 04:08 Local Jordanian Time (02:08 UT), and would show about 1500 meteors per hour by naked eyes. However, we should note that the occurrence of any meteor storm, though itself a prediction based on a scientific basis, there is no definitive way of telling whether the storm will occur or not!! For example, it was expected that a Leonids' storm would occur in 1899, but a storm did not actually take place !! On the other hand, astronomers didn't expect a Leonids' storm in 1966, but a storm did occur, and about 200,000 - 1,000,000 meteors were seen by naked eyes, where it was the biggest storm ever recorded !!
Too see the meteors this year, it is advised to start observing them after mid night of 17-18 November looking to the East. There might not be any interesting show at that time !! But it should get better a few hours before dawn, which will be around 04:42 in Jordan.
For sure, meteors do not represent any real danger on Earth, since they are small grains of sand, generally in the range of 1 mm - 1 cm in diameter. All of which burn up, in fact, long before reaching the surface of Earth. The present theoretical model gives the peak occurring at Nov 18 0220 UT. So the optimum place for seeing will be around the longitude of Moscow. Near Amman: the radiant will pass near the zenith and be about 30 deg east of the meridian at the peak: that is OK. It should be very good seeing. The peak is therefore the night of Wednesday Nov 17/morning of Thursday 18. occurring about 0430 local time. The peak lasts about 2 hours and the radiant is at high elevation in Jordan so the rate should be good. Do u expect a real storm ? I hope so. Chances are better than ever, but never guaranteed. Models show that Earth will pass close to a trail of dust that was ejected in 1899, the same trail as responsible for the 1966 storms. Any second path through such trail would be very valuable in knowing where exactly the trails are relative to Earth's path. That determines what the rate is going to be. Even if the "storm" is a minor shower, but a recognizable increase of say 1-2 hours duration, then we will have gotten some unique scientific data. When exactly ? Expectations are that the peak is around 2h UT on November 18. Jordania is in a very good spot, with the peak in the hour before twilight. However, don't believe what people are saying and allow for some hours uncertainty! All of the night may be good if the broad dust component shows up again. ZHR ? (Number of meteors under perfect conditions) We hope for anything between ZHR = 50 and 10,000. The best location to observe it ? One with clear weather. Above the clouds, from an aircraft. Do u think that 99 is the best year to observe the storm ? Yes, 1999 is our best chance at observing a storm. Other opportunities may exist in 2000 and 2001, but are less certain. Any other remarks u wish to add ? Good luck! Maybe your observers can participate in coordinated observations from other locations on the ground (many will settle in the Negev desert) and from our seats in the air during the 1999 Leonid MAC. Do u expect a real storm ? It's marginal this year, but our best estimate is peak ZHR = 1500 When exactly ? 1999 Nov 18, 02:08 UT plus or minus 5 minutes ZHR ? The formal ZHR prediction is 500. However, values 200 < ZHR < 2000 is possible. The best location to observe it ? Europe and the Middle East. Jordan just about gets the radiant as high as possible without being in twilight. Do u think that 99 is the best year to observe the storm ? No. 2001 and 2002 will see much better ZHRs, although 2002 will have full moon. In 2001 you want to be in E. Asia, the W. Pacific or Australia (with a secondary peak in the Americas) and in 2002 the Americas will be best. Since 2001 will have new moon, 2001 in E. Asia should give the highest observable rates. Do u expect a real storm ? It depends on your definition of a storm. Major outburst or minor storm. When exactly ? 1999 Nov 18 02:08 UT in the Mediterranean region (earlier to south, later to north). ZHR ? The formal ZHR prediction is 500. However, values 200 < ZHR < 2000 is possible. The best location to observe it ? Probably just to the west of Jordan, e.g. Egypt to give a good view of the peak and subsequent decline. The Middle East is likely to experience the highest rates observable anywhere on the Earth in 1999. Do u think that 99 is the best year to observe the storm ? No. The peak ZHR in 2001 and 2002 are likely to be 10 to 20 times higher. The effect of the full moon in 2002 will probably make 2001 the best year for observed rates, although in this year there is uncertainty in our model of what may occur. Any other remarks u wish to add ? Observers in South Africa should witness the peak some 10 minutes before the Mediterranean, so if observations from South Africa are communicated via the internet, we should have a (small) warning of what to expect. If the peak occurs around the predicted time, the rates should fall to about 25% of the peak at the start of twilight. Do u expect a real storm ? I actually do not expect a real storm but rather rates near near 1000 per hour which would still be exciting to see! When exactly ? I feel that will occur at 02:50 Universal Time or slightly later. ZHR ? If we see 1000 per hour then the ZHR would be somewhere near 1500. The best location to observe it ? Going strictly by weather and geographical location I would feel that Northern Africa would be best location. Do u think that 99 is the best year to observe the storm ? Personally yes, but recent articles have been published stating that the year 2001 may be better. I look forward to seeing if that in fact comes true. Any other remarks u wish to add ? I just hope that all people who make the effort to see the display are rewarded for their efforts with a sky full of Leonids meteors! The Arab Union for Astronomy & Space Sciences, the Institute of Astronomy & Space Sciences, and the Jordanian Astronomical Society, organize the 1999 Jordanian Leonid Meteors Conference, 12-21 November þ1999. Organizing Committee The Participants On the occasion of the long-awaited Leonids' storm, the Jordanian Astronomical Society (JAS) has invited many scientists and astronomy amateurs to participate in the conference and in the astronomical camping in the Jordanian desert to observe this shower. Kindly find below the names of the participants. Papers & Presentations The Program Friday, 12 November 1999: Arrival. Saturday, 13 November 1999 Sunday, 14 November 1999 Monday, 15 November 1999 Tuesday, 16 November 1999 Wednesday & Thursday, 17 & 18 November 1999 Friday, 19 November 1999 Saturday, 20 November 1999 Sunday, 21 November 1999: Departure.
Kindly Click Here to see our results.
Within JAS' Site Meteor Page. Leonids '99 '99 Leonid MAC Homepage (NASA).
Leonids '99
What Do the Scientists Say ?
(President of the IAU Commission 22 / Meteors & Interplanetary Dust).
Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics
Australian National University
Association of Lunar and Planetary Observers (ALPO)The 1999 Jordanian Leonids Meteors Conference
The President of Al al-Bayt UniversityTime Subject Speaker/Details 08:00 - 09:00 Departure to AL Al-Bayt University IASS 09:00 - 09:30 Opening of the Conference ---- ------ Royal Salute ---- ------ Reading Verses from the Holly Qura'an ---- ------ Introductory Statement / JAS Eng. Khalil Konsul ------ IASS & AUASS Statement Prof. Hamid Al-Naimiy ------ Opening Speech / on behalf of participants Prof. Baggaley ------ Welcoming Speech/ AL Al-Bayt University Prof. Al-Bakhit ------ Royal Salute ---- 09:30 - 09:50 Tea Break ---- Time Subject Speaker/Details 09:50 - 10:30 Using Radio Techniques for Probing Meteor Streams Baggaley 10:30 - 11:10 Dynamics of Leonid dust trails (The cause of storms) Asher 11:10 - 11:50 Validating the Leonid dust trail: theory predicting peak times and rates McNaught 11:50 - 12:30 The sodium tail of our moon - a new phenomenon in the solar system, linked to meteoroid impacts Fischer 12:30 - 13:15 Lunch Al Al-Bayt University 13:15 - 18:15 Excursion to Jerash AUASS / JAS 20:30 Dinner / Amman AUASS / JAS Time Subject Speaker/Details 09:00 - 09:40 The AMOR radar facility record of Leonids Baggaley 09:40 - 10:20 The Spaceguard Survey McNaught 10:20 - 11:00 Modern trends in videography of astronomical events Dittie 11:00 - 11:20 Tea Break ---- Time Subject Speaker/Details 11:20 - 12:00 1998 Leonids expedition to Mongolia Fischer 12:00 - 12:40 The Leonids 1998 in South-Korea Poerink 12:40 - 13:20 The use of aircraft in Leonid storm recording Baggaley 13:20 - 14:00 A catalogue of meteor showers in medieval Arab chronicles Shaker 14:00 - 15:00 Lunch AUASS / JAS Time Subject Speaker/Details 15:00 - 15:20 International Campaigns to observe meteors Baggaley 15:20 - 16:30 Closing Session Konsul, Al-Naimiy, & Baggaley 16:30 Break ---- 19:00 Dinner AUASS / JAS Time Subject Speaker/Details 04:30 - 05:00 Breakfast AUASS / JAS 05:00 - 20:30 Excursion to Petra AUASS / JAS 21:00 Dinner/Amman AUASS / JAS Time Subject Details 08:00 - 12:00 Excursions: Amman, Roman Theater and Iraq AL-Amir AUASS / JAS 12:00 - 13:00 Lunch AUASS / JAS 13:00 Departure to Al-Azraq Camp AUASS / JAS 20:00 Dinner AUASS / JAS 23:00 Observing Meteors (AL-Azraq Site) ---- Time Subject Details During Daytime Excursion: To be announced due time AUASS / JAS 23:00 Observing Leonids ---- Time Subject Details During Daytime Excursion: To be announced due time AUASS / JAS After Noon Return to Amman AUASS & JAS Time Subject Details 08:00 - 12:00 Free ---- 12:00 - 13:00 Lunch AUASS & JAS 13:00 - 18:00 Excursion to Dead Sea AUASS & JAS
Recommendations of the Conference
Jordanian Leonids '99 Results
Related Links
Observing Meteors by Radio.
List of Meteor Showers.
Armagh Observatory Leonid page.
Gary Kronk's Meteor Showers.
Guide to Meteor Showers and Their Observation (NAMN).
Preparing for the 1999 Leonids (IMO).
Sky and Telescope's Meteor Page.
Storm of the Century (Palestinian Astronomical Society).
Understanding the Leonid Meteor Storms (Aerospace Corporation).
Leonids at JAS Home Page
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